Because predictions are fun to make — let’s make one!
A few years ago I jokingly predicted that Carousell will be more valuable then RedMart (disclaimer, I’m an ex-Redmart employee). Both companies are great and valuable, it’s just I’m very bullish on everything with network effects. That includes cryptocurrencies, yes.
I remember my friends, who were in that conversation, laughed! Or just politely smiled and shook their heads. Fast forward today. That silly prediction appears to be true. Correct me if I’m wrong — please comment below. Sadly, at that time I didn’t blog about that prediction. Thought it would be fun do it now.
Prediction: Facebook will acquire Carousell. Radical! 😱
Now. I’m not saying this with high confidence. There are several arguments I’d like to present against my own prediction:
- Their monetization efforts do have merit and classifieds is been a proven business model for about a decade across continents. Hence they can definitely cover their operating costs. Maybe even make a profit and return multiples to their happy investors. Maybe. Note: I’ve got no access to their projections, financials or any non-publicly accessible data. Just dimensional reasoning.
- Carousell probably doesn’t have any single individual that isn’t already on Facebook. Facebook is known to pay 10 digits for services like WhatsApp and Instagram, which have two things — users that Facebook does not have (surprise!) and crazy engagement (over 20 minutes a day, every day.)
Now a few points on why would that happen:
- Perhaps main value that Facebook could derive from Carousell is crazy engagement and deeper purchasing power data. Facebook has been experimenting with a marketplace product in some cities, but that did not seem to take off internationally. Nor it looked impressive in the active cities.
- And well, this is a good reason too:
Your turn! What do you think will happen to Carousell in the upcoming years?
Originally published at ksaitor.com on September 20, 2017.